Явление перемежаемости в экономике

Abstract

The proposed study examines the concept of intermittency in the economic sphere and its impact on the processes of interaction between various sectors of the economy. The study of the phenomenon of intermittency represents an important contribution to understanding the dynamics of the economic system and its possible changes in the context of a rapidly changing and unstable global economic climate. The authors emphasize that understanding intermittency is necessary to develop effective resource management strategies, as well as to improve economic forecasting and planning and prevent potential crisis situations. The results of the work are based on the analysis of statistical data of the Russian Federation in the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods. One of the key problems with intermittency is its role in the transition to chaos. The purpose of the study is to determine the possibility of transition to crises in the economy through intermittency. Particular attention is paid to type III intermittency. In particular, the authors consider the possibility of modeling the entry into a crisis using the subcritical subharmonic Neumark — Saker bifurcation, as well as the supercritical Andronov — Hopf bifurcation. Numerical series of labor resources and investment volumes in the economy of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2022 were used and analyzed in order to identify time periods during which alternating laminar and turbulent phases of economic development occur. Based on these data, using the least squares method, the parameters that determine the structure of bifurcations were found. Calculations of Floquet multipliers were made, which made it possible to evaluate the behavior of economic resources. The reasons that led to the occurrence of intermittency in certain periods are considered. The results of the study indicated the impossibility of sustainable economic development. The article also presents the most common negative consequences and a number of violations in the economy due to the appearance of intermittency, leading to the subcritical subharmonic Neumark — Saker bifurcation. Based on the results obtained, some approaches are proposed that can help in managing intermittency. The research carried out may be useful for the development of more accurate forecasting and planning models in the economic sphere.